It’s Getting a Bit More Crowded in the Golden State Lifeboat

Often overlooked in what’s come to be the doom-and-gloom budget forecast of the Legislative Analyst’s Fiscal Outlook is the demographics data, which is on Page 22 of the PDF version of the report.

Demographics in the nation’s most populous state has a major impact on fiscal issues.

More Californians mean more people using state services, more people paying vehicle license fees, more people paying sales taxes or income taxes.

More children mean more public school pupils.

More aging Baby Boomers mean more persons in need of home-care, more people taping retirement savings, more people enrolled in Medi-Cal, the state’s health care system for the poor.

California continues to grow according to the analyst. Another forecast pegs the population of the Golden State at 90 million by 2100.

The analyst says California will have more than 40 million residents by 2015. This year the state is a few hundred thousand shy of 39 million – 38,699,000 – and will climb to 38,863,000 in 2011.

By comparison, the state Department of Finance estimates the state’s population at 38,754,942 this year, increasing to 39,113,442 next year.

The Census Bureau, whose figures determine the levels of federal financial support the state receives, puts California’s population at 37 million.

Among the Legislative Analyst’s findings are that a lousy economy has slowed the influx of immigrants and led to more people leaving the state.

“The recent trend of Californians leaving the state probably is accelerating and will continue to do so through 2011.

“At the same time, the economic downturn will depress net international migration into California for  the next several years.

“Births increase slowly as women continue to delay childbirth until later ages.”

The number of school-aged children will increase .2 percent or less through July 1, 2014.

However, the over-65-years-of-age population – Baby Boomers – will grow by over 4 percent each year through 2016.

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