Tax Revenue for April Likely To Be At Least $1.5 Billion Short of Esimates

With only one day left in April, the state is well short of its revenue collection predictions for the month, likely worsening the state’s already grim budget picture by more than $1.5 billion.

Income tax collections for the month, through April 29, totaled $7.7 billion, $1.2 billion below the $8.9 billion expectation the budget signed February 20 is premised on.

Corporate tax collections stood at $1.6 billion on April 29, $700 million short of Schwarzenegger administration estimates.

Nor is the trend good.

Collections logged April 29 dropped markedly from the previous day. On April 28, personal income tax revenue totaled $227,525 — itself a steep decline from the previous day’s $1.4 billion, a weekend’s worth of counting.

On April 29, the Franchise Tax Board showed $73,001 in new income tax revenue.

Similarly, although April isn’t as large a collection month for corporate taxes,  $103,058 was logged April 28 and just $21,4007 April 29. The Schwarzenegger administration has declined to comment about April revenue collections until the month is over. 

Two weeks after the February budget was signed, the Legislative Analyst said the spending plan for the fiscal year that begins July 1 is already out of balance by at least $8 billion.

The analyst assumed at the time that liquidating a $2 billion reserve for emergencies built into the budget would reduce the cash shortfall to a net of $6 billion.

April’s lower-than-expected collections will substantially shrink the size of that reserve, pushing the net shortfall up closer to $8 billion.

The hole in next year’s budget will grow by another $5.8 billion if voters reject three budget-balancing measures on the May 19 special election ballot.

 A recent Field Poll shows all three propositions losing — as well as two other budget-related measures

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